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Applied EconomicsVolume 43, Issue 30, December 2011, Pages 4865-4878

Growth with endogenous migration hump and the multiple, dynamically interacting effects of aid in poor developing countries(Article)(Open Access)

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  • Department of Economics, University of Maastricht and UNU-MERIT, PO Box 616, NL 6200 MD Maastricht, Netherlands

Abstract

We show empirically that aid given to poor developing countries enhances growth and reduces emigration, once several dynamically interacting effects of aid are taken into account in a system of equations. We estimate equations for net immigration flows as a share of the labour force and Gross Domestic Product Per Capita (GDPPC) growth and also for all their regressors including remittances and official development aid. We use dynamic panel data methods for a sample of poor countries with GDPPC below $1200 (2000), for which aid is about 9.5% of GDP. The partial effects in these regressions are working against each other. Therefore, we integrate all equations into a dynamic system and run a simulation. One result is an endogenous migration hump with several peaks. In a counterfactual simulation, we double aid with the consequence that for more than a 100 years migration is reduced and the GDPPC is enhanced, because the positive effects of aid on investment and education dominate the negative direct effects of aid on growth and the unfavourable effects on savings, tax revenues and labour force growth. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.

Indexed keywords

GEOBASE Subject Index:developing worlddevelopment aideconomic growtheconomic impactemigrationempirical analysisGross Domestic Productimmigrationinternational aidinvestmentlabor supply
  • ISSN: 00036846
  • Source Type: Journal
  • Original language: English
  • DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2010.498363
  • Document Type: Article

  Ziesemer, T.; Department of Economics, University of Maastricht and UNU-MERIT, PO Box 616, Netherlands;
© Copyright 2011 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

Cited by 3 documents

Cazachevici, A. , Havranek, T. , Horvath, R.
Remittances and economic growth: A meta-analysis
(2020) World Development
Ziesemer, T.
The Impact of Development Aid on Education and Health: Survey and New Evidence for Low-income Countries from Dynamic Models
(2016) Journal of International Development
Ziesemer, T.H.W.
Worker remittances, migration, accumulation and growth in poor developing countries: Survey and analysis of direct and indirect effects
(2012) Economic Modelling
View details of all 3 citations
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