

We analyze the employment effect of a law that provides for a 36% increase in the generosity of disability insurance (DI) for claimants who are, as a result of their lack of skills and of the labour market conditions they face, deemed unlikely to find a job. The selection process for treatment is therefore conditional on having a low probability of employment, making evaluation of its effect intrinsically difficult. We exploit the fact that the benefit increase is only available to individuals aged 55 or older, estimating its impact using a regression discontinuity approach. Our first results indicate a large drop in employment for disabled individuals who receive the increase in the benefit. Testing for the linearity of covariates around the eligibility age threshold reveals that the age at which individuals start claiming DI is not continuous: the benefit increase appears to accelerate the entry rate of individuals aged 55 or over. We obtain new estimates excluding this group of claimants, and find that the policy decreases the employment probability by 8%. We conclude that the observed DI generosity elasticity of 0.22 on labour market participation is mostly due to income effects since benefit receipt is not work contingent in the system studied. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.
| Funding sponsor | Funding number | Acronym |
|---|---|---|
| Marie Curie See opportunities | 252572 |
We thank the editor, Mark Duggan, and two anonymous referees for their very valuable suggestions on previous versions of this paper which have greatly improved it. We are grateful for comments received at seminars at Baruch College, Cornell University, Stony Brook University, Maastricht University, Universitat de Girona and at the ESPE 2010 (Essen), and EEA 2010 (Glasgow) conferences. Marie would like to thank the Executive Research Agency of the European Union for funding under the Marie Curie IEF grant number 252572 . Vall Castello would like to thank the Cournot Centre for Economic Research for granting her a Robert Solow Postdoctoral Fellowship.
Marie, O.; Department of Economics, Universitat de Girona, Spain;
© Copyright 2011 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.