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Climatic ChangeVolume 122, Issue 3, February 2014, Pages 363-372

A new scenario framework for climate change research: Background, process, and future directions(Article)(Open Access)

  • Ebi, K.L.,
  • Hallegatte, S.,
  • Kram, T.,
  • Arnell, N.W.,
  • Carter, T.R.,
  • Edmonds, J.,
  • Kriegler, E.,
  • Mathur, R.,
  • O'Neill, B.C.,
  • Riahi, K.,
  • Winkler, H.,
  • van Vuuren, D.P.,
  • Zwickel, T.
  • View Correspondence (jump link)
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  • aClimAdapt, LLC, 424 Tyndall Street, Los Altos, CA, United States
  • bThe World Bank, WA, DC, United States
  • cNetherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, Netherlands
  • dWalker Institute for Climate System Research, Reading, United Kingdom
  • eFinnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Climate Change Programme, Helsinki, Finland
  • fJoint Global Change Research Institute, Baltimore, United States
  • gPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
  • hTERI, New Delhi, India
  • iNational Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, United States
  • jInternational Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
  • kUniversity of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
  • lUtrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands

Abstract

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; and the relationship of future climate change adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al., 2013; O'Neill et al., 2013; Kriegler et al., Submitted for publication inthis special issue). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop, apply, and revise this framework in an iterative and open-ended process. A key goal of the framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013.

Indexed keywords

Engineering controlled terms:ResearchRisk assessmentRisk perception
Engineering uncontrolled termsAdaptation policiesConceptual frameworksCosts and benefitsEnvironmental developmentFramework designsInterdisciplinary researchMitigation policiesScientific community
Engineering main heading:Climate change
  • ISSN: 01650009
  • CODEN: CLCHD
  • Source Type: Journal
  • Original language: English
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0912-3
  • Document Type: Article
  • Publisher: Kluwer Academic Publishers

  Ebi, K. L.; ClimAdapt, LLC, 424 Tyndall Street, United States;
© Copyright 2014 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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