Skip to main content
Climatic ChangeVolume 122, Issue 3, February 2014, Pages 373-386

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture(Article)(Open Access)

  • van Vuuren, D.P.,
  • Kriegler, E.,
  • O'Neill, B.C.,
  • Ebi, K.L.,
  • Riahi, K.,
  • Carter, T.R.,
  • Edmonds, J.,
  • Hallegatte, S.,
  • Kram, T.,
  • Mathur, R.,
  • Winkler, H.
  • View Correspondence (jump link)
  Save all to author list
  • aPBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO BOX 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands
  • bDepartment of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
  • cPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
  • dNational Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States
  • eClimAdapt, LLC, Los Altos, CA, United States
  • fInternational Institute for Applied System Analysis, Vienna, Austria
  • gFinnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Box 140, 00251 Helsinki, Finland
  • hPacific Northwest National Laboratory/Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States
  • iThe World Bank, WA, DC, United States
  • jThe Energy and Resources Institute - TERI, New Delhi, India
  • kUniversity of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

Abstract

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013.

Indexed keywords

Engineering controlled terms:Atmospheric radiationClimate changeResearchTools
Engineering uncontrolled termsAdaptation policiesClimate researchGlobal developmentMatrix architectureMitigation strategyRadiative forcingsScenario developmentSocio-economics
Engineering main heading:Architecture
  • ISSN: 01650009
  • CODEN: CLCHD
  • Source Type: Journal
  • Original language: English
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1
  • Document Type: Article
  • Publisher: Kluwer Academic Publishers

  van Vuuren, D. P.; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO BOX 303, Netherlands;
© Copyright 2014 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

Cited by 389 documents

Ali, A.-R. , Ryberg, M.W.
Evaluating the effectiveness of sector-specific policies relative to the planetary boundaries
(2023) Environmental Science and Policy
Chen, L. , Liao, H. , Zhu, J.
Increases in ozone-related mortality in China over 2013–2030 attributed to historical ozone deterioration and future population aging
(2023) Science of the Total Environment
Sousa, A. , Encarnação Coelho, R. , Costa, H.
Integrated climate, ecological and socioeconomic scenarios for the whale watching sector
(2023) Science of the Total Environment
View details of all 389 citations
{"topic":{"name":"Integrated Assessment Model; Carbon; Global Temperature Increase","id":3285,"uri":"Topic/3285","prominencePercentile":99.8676,"prominencePercentileString":"99.868","overallScholarlyOutput":0},"dig":"8415180c7e47a10c1175db68c1bf2f5eaca47f6d822881f8036b2cfe42b3b03c"}

SciVal Topic Prominence

Topic:
Prominence percentile: