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Irish Journal of Agricultural and Food ResearchVolume 53, Issue 2, 2014, Pages 149-169

The employment effects of Food Harvest 2020 in Ireland(Article)

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  • aAgri-Food and Bioscience Institute, Belfast, United Kingdom
  • bDepartment of Economics, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland
  • cInstitute for International Integration Studies, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland
  • dTeagasc, Athenry, Co. Galway, Ireland

Abstract

This paper examines the job creation potential of the four main sectoral growth targets in the Food Harvest 2020 (FH2020) development plan for Irish agriculture, namely the growth targets for milk, beef, sheep and pigs. As well as the direct employment that would be created from an increase in activity in the agriculture sector, there would be a knock-on benefit for the rest of the economy arising out of the linkages between agriculture and other economic sectors, as well as the spending of those additionally employed on goods and services produced in the economy. Commonly this is described as the multiplier impact. Two scenarios are simulated using different assumptions to assess how employment will respond to increased output. The first scenario shows the effects of the four shocks calculated using average or direct employment coefficients. The second scenario calculates the effects using marginal employment coefficients estimated using an econometric model of the output-employment relationship. Our results are sensitive to the choice of coefficients used to simulate the employment potential of the FH2020 targets. Based on our preferred scenario using marginal employment coefficients, we estimate that achieving the FH2020 targets will create at least an additional 16,500 jobs in the Irish economy. © 2014, Teagasc. All rights reserved.

Author keywords

AgricultureEmployment elasticityIrelandSocial accounting matrix analysis
  • ISSN: 07916833
  • Source Type: Journal
  • Original language: English
  • Document Type: Article
  • Publisher: Teagasc

  Miller, A.C.; Agri-Food and Bioscience Institute, Belfast, United Kingdom
© Copyright 2014 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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