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Carbon ManagementVolume 7, Issue 3-4, 3 July 2016, Pages 125-136

Will global convergence of per-capita emissions lead the way to meeting the UNFCCC goal?(Article)

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  • Senior Economist, Development Research Group, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433, United States

Abstract

One of the contentious issues of the ongoing climate negotiations is the huge differences in per-capita CO2 emissions between Annex I and Non-Annex I countries. This paper analyzes the costs of reducing this gap using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. A range of carbon taxes are considered for Annex I countries as policy instruments. Results show that the average per-capita CO2 emissions of Annex I countries would still remain almost twice as high as those of Non-Annex I countries in 2030 even if the CO2 emissions of the former are reduced by 57% from the baseline through a heavy carbon tax of $250/tCO2. The global reduction of CO2 emissions would be only 18% due to an increase in CO2 emissions in the Non-Annex I countries. This reduction would not be sufficient to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at the level implied by UNFCCC to avoid dangerous climate change. The $250/tCO2 carbon tax, on the other hand, would reduce Annex I countries’ gross domestic product by 2.4%, and global trade volume by 2%. This paper concludes that a demand for the convergence of per capita emissions between industrialized and developing countries would not be fruitful in climate change negotiations. © 2016 The World Bank.

Author keywords

Emission intensitygeneral equilibrium modelinginternational negotiation on climate change

Indexed keywords

Engineering controlled terms:Carbon dioxideDeveloping countries
Engineering uncontrolled termsComputable general equilibrium modelDangerous climate changesEmission intensityGeneral equilibrium modelsGlobal conver-genceGross domestic productsInternational negotiationPolicy instruments
Engineering main heading:Climate change
  • ISSN: 17583004
  • Source Type: Journal
  • Original language: English
  • DOI: 10.1080/17583004.2016.1181837
  • Document Type: Article
  • Publisher: Taylor and Francis Ltd.

  Timilsina, G.R.; Senior Economist, Development Research Group, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC, United States;
© Copyright 2017 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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