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To understand the contemporary and anticipated future (future 30-50 years) distribution of Chinese wild yellowhorn (Xanthoceras sorbifolium Bunge) and to improve the species’ in situ conservation strategy within the network of China’s National Nature Reserves (NNR), we used BiodiversityR to predict the species’ distribution utilizing the “always-suitable” map concept. We then delineated the always-suitable distributions with the existing NNRs to identify potential conservation areas using an approach that concurrently considered spatial distribution, gap analysis, the role of climate change, and economic analyses. Seven bioclimatic variable predictors and 12 environmental niche modelling submodels successfully contributed to the final model assembly (AUC = 0.916, K = 0.398). The species range delineation indicated that 71 of the 427 NNRs were included in the always-suitable area, accounting for 26 007 km2 (1.58%) of the species total distribution. This mapping endeavour highlighted the negative impact of climate change with a projected 15%-20% habitat decline and expected species’ distribution centers shifting from the country’s northwest to the southeast. Our results predict the continuous deterioration of X. sorbifolium because of its existing utilization as an oil source and its increased bioenergy potential. The adoption of a flexible management strategy embracing acceptable trade-offs between conservation and utilization within China’s NNRs could effectively alleviate the expected species decline. © Her Majesty the Queen in right of Canada 2017.
| Engineering controlled terms: | Climate changeClimate modelsConservationEconomic analysisEconomic and social effects |
|---|---|
| Engineering uncontrolled terms | Bio-energyGap analysisNature reservesSpecies distribution modelingTrade off |
| Engineering main heading: | Population distribution |
| GEOBASE Subject Index: | bioclimatologybiodiversitybioenergyclimate changeconservationecological modelingeconomic analysisnature reservenicheperformance assessmentpopulation distributionrelict communityresource usespatial distributiontrade-offwild populationwoody plant |
| PaperChem Variable: | AccountingChineseConservationDegradationDistributionEconomic AnalysisOilUtilization |
| Regional Index: | China |
| Species Index: | Xanthoceras sorbifolium |
| Funding sponsor | Funding number | Acronym |
|---|---|---|
| Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China | 2013GA105004 | MOST |
W. Guan was funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China (No. 2013GA105004) and Q. Wang was supported by the Chinese Scholarship Council (CSC). These funding agencies had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
El-Kassaby, Y.A.; Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada;
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