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Risk AnalysisVolume 30, Issue 10, October 2010, Pages 1495-1506

Anthropic Shadow: Observation Selection Effects and Human Extinction Risks(Article)

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  • aAstronomical Observatory of Belgrade, Volgina, Belgrade, Serbia
  • bFuture of Humanity Institute, Faculty of Philosophy and James Martin 21st Century School, Oxford University, London, United Kingdom

Abstract

We describe a significant practical consequence of taking anthropic biases into account in deriving predictions for rare stochastic catastrophic events. The risks associated with catastrophes such as asteroidal/cometary impacts, supervolcanic episodes, and explosions of supernovae/gamma-ray bursts are based on their observed frequencies. As a result, the frequencies of catastrophes that destroy or are otherwise incompatible with the existence of observers are systematically underestimated. We describe the consequences of this anthropic bias for estimation of catastrophic risks, and suggest some directions for future work. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Author keywords

Anthropic principleAstrobiologyExistential risksGlobal catastrophesImpact hazardNatural hazardsRisk managementSelection effectsVacuum phase transition

Indexed keywords

Engineering uncontrolled termsAnthropic principleExistential risksGlobal catastrophesImpact hazardNatural hazardSelection effects
Engineering controlled terms:DisastersHazardsPhase transitionsRisk analysisRisk managementVacuum
Engineering main heading:Risk perception
GEOBASE Subject Index:catastrophic eventfuture prospectnatural hazardphase transitionrisk assessment
EMTREE medical terms:accidentanimalanthropometryarticlecatastrophizingconfidence intervalexistentialismgreenhouse effecthumanobserver variationprobabilitypsychological aspectrisk assessmentspecies extinctionsurvival ratetheoretical model
MeSH:AccidentsAnimalsAnthropometryCatastrophizationConfidence IntervalsExistentialismExtinction, BiologicalGlobal WarmingHumansModels, TheoreticalObserver VariationProbabilityRisk AssessmentSurvival Rate
  • ISSN: 02724332
  • CODEN: RIAND
  • Source Type: Journal
  • Original language: English
  • DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01460.x
  • PubMed ID: 20626690
  • Document Type: Article

  Ćirković, M.M.; Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade, Volgina 7, Serbia;
© Copyright 2011 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved. © MEDLINE® is the source for the MeSH terms of this document.

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