Skip to main content
Thermal ScienceVolume 16, Issue SUPPL. 1, 2012, Pages S215-S224

Hybrid artificial neural network system for short-term load forecasting(Article)(Open Access)

  Save all to author list
  • Department of Computing and Control, Faculty of Technical Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia

Abstract

This paper presents a novel hybrid method for short-term load forecasting. The system comprises of two artificial neural networks (ANN), assembled in a hierarchical order. The first ANN is a multilayer perceptron (MLP) which functions as integrated load predictor (ILP) for the forecasting day. The output of the ILP is then fed to another, more complex MLP, which acts as an hourly load predictor (HLP) for a forecasting day. By using a separate ANN that predicts the integral of the load (ILP), additional information is presented to the actual forecasting ANN (HLP), while keeping its input space relatively small. This property enables online training and adaptation, as new data become available, because of the short training time. Different sizes of training sets have been tested, and the optimum of 30 day sliding time-window has been determined. The system has been verified on recorded data from Serbian electrical utility company. The results demonstrate better efficiency of the proposed method in comparison to non-hybrid methods because it produces better forecasts and yields smaller mean average percentage error.

Author keywords

Hybrid neural network structureMultilayer perceptronPrediction modelShort-term load forecasting

Indexed keywords

Engineering controlled terms:Electric power plant loadsMultilayer neural networksMultilayers
Engineering uncontrolled termsHourly loadHybrid artificial neural networkHybrid methodHybrid neural network structureHybrid neural networksLoad predictorMultilayers perceptronsNeural networks structurePrediction modellingShort term load forecasting
Engineering main heading:Forecasting
  • ISSN: 03549836
  • Source Type: Journal
  • Original language: English
  • DOI: 10.2298/TSCI120130073I
  • Document Type: Article
  • Publisher: Serbian Society of Heat Transfer Engineers

  Ilić, S.A.; Department of Computing and Control, Faculty of Technical Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Serbia;
© Copyright 2022 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

Cited by 30 documents

Dragana, K. , Marija, B. , Aleksandar, R.
Monthly Electricity Consumption Prediction: Integrating Artificial Neural Networks and Calculated Attributes
(2024) Journal of Scientific and Industrial Research
Aquila, G. , Morais, L.B.S. , de Faria, V.A.D.
An Overview of Short-Term Load Forecasting for Electricity Systems Operational Planning: Machine Learning Methods and the Brazilian Experience
(2023) Energies
Knežević, D. , Blagojević, M. , Ranković, A.
Еlectricity Consumption Prediction Model for Improving Energy Efficiency Based on Artificial Neural Networks
(2023) Studies in Informatics and Control
View details of all 30 citations
{"topic":{"name":"Neural Network; Load Forecasting; Electric Power","id":116,"uri":"Topic/116","prominencePercentile":99.77584,"prominencePercentileString":"99.776","overallScholarlyOutput":0},"dig":"551a2f58b604d7aa248aff29362d44055ea62da9e784deda494ba49a2b8d351d"}

SciVal Topic Prominence

Topic:
Prominence percentile: