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Thermal ScienceVolume 25, 2021, Pages 679-690

Procedure for Creating Custom Multiple Linear Regression Based Short Term Load Forecasting Models by Using Genetic Algorithm Optimization(Article)(Open Access)

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  • University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia

Abstract

This paper presents a novel procedure for short-term load forecasting in distribu-tion management systems. The load is forecasted for feeders that can be of a pri-marily residential, commercial, industrial or combined type. Each feeder has var-ious amounts of distributed energy resources installed, which accounts for multi-ple different load patterns. Hence, the distribution management systems cannot use a single short-term load forecasting model for all forecasts. The proposed procedure addresses the specificity of each particular feeder type, by creating customized short-term load forecasting models. It uses a genetic algorithm to se-lect the best inputs for different multiple linear regression models. The genetic algorithm chooses variables from a dataset constructed using load and tempera-ture measurements. The dataset is extended by adding non-linear transformations and mutual interaction effects of the measurements, as well as calendar varia-bles. This extension enables for the modelling of non-linear influences and ex-tracts the non-linearity to the domain of input variables. The models’ perfor-mance is assessed by the mean absolute percentage error. The proposed proce-dure is applied to a set of measurements collected from an US electric power util-ity, which operates in the city of Burbank, Cal., USA. The obtained multiple line-ar regression model is compared with a previously proposed naïve benchmark, and a special comparison model, developed by correlation analysis. The pro-posed method is extendable to suit distribution management systems with differ-ent types of electricity consumers. © 2021 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia.

Author keywords

genetic algorithminput variable selectionmultiple linear regressionshort-term load forecasting

Indexed keywords

Engineering controlled terms:Energy resourcesFeedingForecastingGenetic algorithmsLinear transformations
Engineering uncontrolled termsDistributed Energy ResourcesDistribution management systemsGenetic-algorithm optimizationsInput variable selectionLoad forecasting modelLoad patternsManagement systemsMultiple linear regression modelsMultiple linear regressionsShort term load forecasting
Engineering main heading:Multiple linear regression
  • ISSN: 03549836
  • Source Type: Journal
  • Original language: English
  • DOI: 10.2298/TSCI191205101I
  • Document Type: Article
  • Publisher: Serbian Society of Heat Transfer Engineers

  Vukmirović, S.M.; University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia;
© Copyright 2022 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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