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Annals of Operations ResearchVolume 334, Issue 1-3, March 2024, Pages 59-82

Unlocking the black box: Non-parametric option pricing before and during COVID-19(Article)(Open Access)

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  • aDepartment of Economics and Finance, University of Guelph, Lang School of Business and Economics, 50 Stone Road East, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada
  • bFaculty of Technical Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia

Abstract

This paper addresses the interpretability problem of non-parametric option pricing models by using the explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approach. We study call options written on the S&P 500 stock market index across three market regimes: pre-COVID-19, COVID-19 market crash, and post-COVID-19 recovery. Our comparative option pricing exercise demonstrates the superiority of the random forest and extreme gradient boosting models for each market regime. We also show that the model’s pricing accuracy has worsened from the pre-COVID-19 to the recovery period. Moneyness was the most important price determinants across the market regimes, while the implied volatility and time-to-maturity inputs contributed intermittently to a lesser extent. During the COVID-19 crash, open interest gained more economic importance due to the increased behavioral tendencies of traders consistent with market distress. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2022.

Author keywords

COVID-19Explainable artificial intelligenceExtreme gradient boostingInterpretabilityOption pricingRandom forest
  • ISSN: 02545330
  • Source Type: Journal
  • Original language: English
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10479-022-04578-7
  • Document Type: Article
  • Publisher: Springer

  Gradojevic, N.; Department of Economics and Finance, University of Guelph, Lang School of Business and Economics, 50 Stone Road East, Guelph, ON, Canada;
© Copyright 2024 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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