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Artificial Intelligence ReviewVolume 57, Issue 3, March 2024, Article number 45

Optimizing long-short-term memory models via metaheuristics for decomposition aided wind energy generation forecasting(Article)(Open Access)

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  • aMining and Metallurgy Institute Bor, Zeleni bulevar 35, Bor, 19210, Serbia
  • bTechnical Faculty, Singidunum University, Danijelova 32, Belgrade, 11000, Serbia
  • cFaculty of Informatics and Computing, Singidunum University, Danijelova 32, Belgrade, 11000, Serbia
  • dDepartment of Industrial Engineering, Turkish Naval Academy, National Defence University, Tuzla, Istanbul, 34942, Turkey
  • eThe Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom
  • fDepartment of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Lebanese American University, Byblos, Lebanon
  • gDepartment of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Alberta, 9211 116, Street NW, Edmonton, AB T6G 1H9, Canada
  • hThe Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
  • iThe Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Department of Computer Engineering, Istinye University, Sariyer/Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract

Power supply from renewable energy is an important part of modern power grids. Robust methods for predicting production are required to balance production and demand to avoid losses. This study proposed an approach that incorporates signal decomposition techniques with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks tuned via a modified metaheuristic algorithm used for wind power generation forecasting. LSTM networks perform notably well when addressing time-series prediction, and further hyperparameter tuning by a modified version of the reptile search algorithm (RSA) can help improve performance. The modified RSA was first evaluated against standard CEC2019 benchmark instances before being applied to the practical challenge. The proposed tuned LSTM model has been tested against two wind production datasets with hourly resolutions. The predictions were executed without and with decomposition for one, two, and three steps ahead. Simulation outcomes have been compared to LSTM networks tuned by other cutting-edge metaheuristics. It was observed that the introduced methodology notably exceed other contenders, as was later confirmed by the statistical analysis. Finally, this study also provides interpretations of the best-performing models on both observed datasets, accompanied by the analysis of the importance and impact each feature has on the predictions. © The Author(s) 2024.

Author keywords

Long short-term memory networksMetaheuristics optimizationReptile search algorithmShapley additive explanationsWind power generation

Indexed keywords

Engineering controlled terms:BenchmarkingBrainForecastingHeuristic algorithmsLearning algorithmsOptimizationPower generationSignal processingWind power
Engineering uncontrolled termsLong short-term memory networkMemory modelingMemory networkMetaheuristicMetaheuristic optimizationReptile search algorithmSearch AlgorithmsShapleyShapley additive explanationWind power generation
Engineering main heading:Long short-term memory

Funding details

Funding sponsor Funding number Acronym
Science Fund of the Republic of Serbia7502
Science Fund of the Republic of Serbia
  • 1

    This research was supported by the Science Fund of the Republic of Serbia, Grant No. 7502, Intelligent Multi-Agent Control and Optimization applied to Green Buildings and Environmental Monitoring Drone Swarms - ECOSwarm.

  • ISSN: 02692821
  • CODEN: AIRVE
  • Source Type: Journal
  • Original language: English
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10462-023-10678-y
  • Document Type: Article
  • Publisher: Springer Nature

  Bacanin, N.; Faculty of Informatics and Computing, Singidunum University, Danijelova 32, Belgrade, Serbia;
© Copyright 2024 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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