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Knowledge-Based SystemsVolume 299, 5 September 2024, Article number 112026

Forecasting bitcoin: Decomposition aided long short-term memory based time series modeling and its explanation with Shapley values(Article)(Open Access)

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  • aSingidunum University, Danijelova 32, Belgrade, 11000, Serbia
  • bUniversity Singergija, Raje Banjicica, Bjeljina, 76300, Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • cMEU Research Unit, Middle East University, Amman, 11831, Jordan
  • dDepartment of Industrial Engineering, Turkish Naval Academy, National Defence University, Istanbul, Tuzla, 34942, Turkey
  • eRoyal School of Mines, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
  • fDepartment of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Lebanese American University, Byblos, Lebanon
  • gDepartment of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Alberta, 9211 116, Street NW, Edmonton, AB T6G 1H9, Canada
  • hSystems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, 00-901 Warsaw, Poland
  • iDepartment of Computer Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Istinye University, Sariyer/Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract

Bitcoin price volatility fascinates both researchers and investors, studying features that influence its movement. This paper expends on previous research and examines time series data of various exogenous and endogenous factors: Bitcoin, Ethereum, S&P 500, and VIX closing prices; exchange rates of the Euro and GPB to USD; and the number of Bitcoin-related tweets per day. A period of three years (from September 2019 to September 2022) is covered by the research dataset. A two-layer framework is introduced tasked with accurately forecasting Bitcoin price. In the first layer, to account for complexities in the analyzed data, variational mode decomposition (VMD) extracts trends from the time series. In the second layer, Long short-term memory and hybrid Bidirectional long short-term memory networks were used to forecast prices several steps ahead. This work also introduced an enhanced variant of the sine cosine algorithm to tune the control parameters of VMD and both neural networks for attaining the best possible performance. The main focus is on combining VMD with modified metaheuristics to improve cryptocurrency closing value forecast. Two sets of experiments were conducted, with and without VMD. The results have been contrasted with models tuned by seven other cutting-edge optimizers. Extensive experimental outcomes indicate that Bitcoin price can be forecasted with great accuracy using selected features and time series decomposition. Additionally, the best model was analyzed, and Shapley values indicated that features such as EUR/USD exchange rates, Ethereum closing prices, and GBP/USD exchange rates, have a significant impact on forecasts. © 2024 The Author(s)

Author keywords

Bidirectional long short-term memoryInvestor sentimentMetaheuristics optimizationSine cosine algorithmVariational mode decomposition

Indexed keywords

Engineering controlled terms:BitcoinBrainCostsForecastingHeuristic algorithmsOptimizationTime series
Engineering uncontrolled termsBidirectional long short-term memoryExchange ratesExogenous factorsInvestor's sentimentsMetaheuristic optimizationPrice volatilityShapley valueSine-cosine algorithmTime-series dataTimes series models
Engineering main heading:Variational mode decomposition

Funding details

Funding sponsor Funding number Acronym
Science Fund of the Republic of Serbia7373,7502
Science Fund of the Republic of Serbia
  • 1

    This research was supported by the Science Fund of the Republic of Serbia, Grant No. 7373, Characterizing crises-caused air pollution alternations using an artificial intelligence-based framework - crAIRsis and Grant No. 7502, Intelligent Multi-Agent Control and Optimization applied to Green Buildings and Environmental Monitoring Drone Swarms - ECOSwarm.

  • ISSN: 09507051
  • CODEN: KNSYE
  • Source Type: Journal
  • Original language: English
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.knosys.2024.112026
  • Document Type: Article
  • Publisher: Elsevier B.V.

  Deveci, M.; Department of Industrial Engineering, Turkish Naval Academy, National Defence University, Istanbul, Tuzla, Turkey;
© Copyright 2024 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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