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Open GeosciencesVolume 16, Issue 1, 1 January 2024, Article number 20220684

Assessing risk-prone areas in the Kratovska Reka catchment (North Macedonia) by integrating advanced geospatial analytics and flash flood potential index(Article)(Open Access)

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  • aMaarif International School - Skopje Campus, Kiro Gligorov 5, Skopje, 1000, North Macedonia
  • bInstitute of Geography, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University, Arhimedova 3, Skopje, 1000, North Macedonia
  • cDepartment of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovica 3, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia
  • dSerbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Kneza Mihaila 35, Belgrade, 11000, Serbia
  • eFaculty of Security Studies, University of Belgrade, Gospodara Vucica 50, Belgrade, 11040, Serbia
  • fScientific - Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management, Dimitrija Tucovica 121, Belgrade, 11040, Serbia
  • gInternational Institute for Disaster Research, Dimitrija Tucovica 121, Belgrade, 11040, Serbia

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of flash flood susceptibility in the Kratovska Reka catchment area of Northeastern North Macedonia, integrating Geographic Information System, remote sensing, and field survey data. Key factors influencing flash flood dynamics, including Slope, Lithology, Land use, and Vegetation index, were investigated to develop the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI). Mapping slope variation using a 5-m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) revealed higher slopes in eastern tributaries compared to western counterparts. Lithological units were classified based on susceptibility to erosion processes, with clastic sediments identified as most prone to flash floods. Land use analysis highlighted non-irrigated agricultural surfaces and areas with sparse vegetation as highly susceptible. Integration of these factors into the FFPI model provided insights into flash flood susceptibility, with results indicating a medium risk across the catchment. The average value of the FFPI is 1.9, considering that the values range from 1 to 5. Also, terrains susceptible to flash floods were found to be 49.34%, classified as medium risk. Field survey data validated the model, revealing a significant overlap between hotspot areas for flash floods and high-risk regions identified by the FFPI. An average FFPI coefficient was calculated for each tributary (sub-catchment) of the Kratovska Reka. According to the model, Latišnica had the highest average coefficient of susceptibility to potential flash floods, with a value of 2.16. These findings offer valuable insights for spatial planning and flood risk management, with implications for both local and national-scale applications. Future research directions include incorporating machine learning techniques to enhance modeling accuracy and reduce subjectivity in assigning weighting factors. © 2024 the author(s), published by De Gruyter.

Author keywords

FFPIflash floods riskgeospatial analyticsGISKratovska Rekanatural hazardsRemote Sensing

Indexed keywords

Engineering controlled terms:Banks (bodies of water)CatchmentsDigital storageLithologyRisk assessmentRisk managementVegetation mapping
Engineering uncontrolled termsFlash flood potential indexFlash flood riskFlash-floodsFlood potentialFlood risksGeo-spatialGeospatial analyticKratovska rekumNatural hazardRemote-sensing
Engineering main heading:Floods
GEOBASE Subject Index:flash floodGISnatural hazardremote sensingrisk assessmentspatial analysis
Regional Index:Macedonia [Southern Europe]

Funding details

Funding sponsor Funding number Acronym
Ministarstvo Prosvete, Nauke i Tehnološkog Razvoja451-03-66/2024-03/200125,451-03-65/2024-03/200125MPNTR
Ministarstvo Prosvete, Nauke i Tehnološkog RazvojaMPNTR
Provincial Secretariat for Higher Education and Scientific Research, Autonomous Province of Vojvodina000871816 2024 09418 003 000 000 001 04 002
Provincial Secretariat for Higher Education and Scientific Research, Autonomous Province of Vojvodina
  • 1

    Slobodan B. Markovi\u0107 and Tin Luki\u0107 gratefully acknowledge the support of the Ministry of Science, Technological Development and Innovation of the Republic of Serbia (Grants No. 451-03-66/2024-03/200125 & 451-03-65/2024-03/200125) and the Provincial Secretariat for Higher Education and Scientific Research of Vojvodina (Serbia), No. 000871816 2024 09418 003 000 000 001 04 002 (GLOMERO), under Program 0201 and Program Activity 1012. The authors are grateful to the reviewers whose comments and suggestions greatly improved the manuscript.

  • ISSN: 23915447
  • Source Type: Journal
  • Original language: English
  • DOI: 10.1515/geo-2022-0684
  • Document Type: Article
  • Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH

  Aleksova, B.; Maarif International School - Skopje Campus, Kiro Gligorov 5, Skopje, North Macedonia;
© Copyright 2024 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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